Modelling and prioritisation of climate refugia for Marine Spatial Planning.
Supervisors: Elena Gissi, Stefano Menegon (CNR ISMAR, Venice)
Climate change is causing significant changes to the ocean and as a result, marine species are on the move. Climate-smart conservation actions are required to account for the movements of marine species now and in the future. Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) can be used to aid this process by also accounting for human activities in the ocean. Identifying priority areas of conservation for marine species across different future climate projections is essential to ensure their survival and persistence into the future. This study aims to understand how we can prioritise for megafaunal species on the move, using different climate change projections, within MSP. Systematic conservation planning tool prioritizr was used to identify priority conservation areas for megafauna species in the northeastern Pacific Ocean for different future climate scenarios. Priority areas for conservation were identified for both the economic exclusive zone and areas beyond national jurisdiction, using two different cost layers: equal and fisheries cost. It was found that conservation areas created now may not be optimal in the future and that conservation methods need to evolve in order to achieve global conservation targets. International cooperation and management is required to protect species on the move as they cross jurisdictional boundaries. Cost was found to be the main driver of priority area selection, as a result there is a need to project future human activities in the ocean for the best outcome of conservation efforts. Priority areas for the conservation of megafauna species in the northeast Pacific were identified and were considered as irreplaceable areas due to their selection as priority areas across all future climate projections. Climate-smart conservation planning within the MSP process can be used to create adaptive marine protected areas that ensure the persistence and survival of marine species into the future.