Mangrove Threat Index: an easy-to-use tool for local decisionmakers to predict the likelihood of mangrove loss.
Supervisors: Octavio Aburto (Scripps Inst Ocean), Fabio Favoretto (Biod. Mar, UBC,Mex)
Despite many conservation efforts, mangrove extension worldwide is still declining mainly because of pressures from anthropic activities such as urban development, aquaculture, and agriculture. This trend is expected to continue in the future.

This research aims to develop and validate a cost-effective and participative tool that allows local decision-makers to gain insights into the level of anthropic pressure on mangroves. The tool builds on data from top-down monitoring initiatives and local knowledge, linking top-down and bottom-up approaches to mangrove governance.

The tool consists of two main elements: an R package integrated with a QGIS interface that generates the Mangrove Threat Index (MTI). The MTI provides a spatial measure of the current level of anthropic pressures on mangroves at patch level and indicates the likelihood of degradation or loss of these ecosystems in the medium to long term.

The validity of the MTI has been tested in the case study of Sinaloa, where the areas of mangroves lost or perturbed in the years 2015 and 2020 have been compared to their MTI value of 2010. The relationship between area lost and MTI was positive and significant with a p value < 0.05, confirming that the MTI is a proxy for mangrove loss or perturbation due to anthropic stressors.

Keywords: mangrove conservation, remote sensing, top-down approach, mangrove governance, anthropic stressors, R-package, citizen-science.